Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.108854 0.120335 0.132076 0.144953 0.158651 0.172761 0.188367
2025-01-26 0.097595 0.115829 0.135332 0.157619 0.182258 0.208548 0.238599
2025-02-02 0.083857 0.106253 0.131197 0.160736 0.194463 0.231489 0.274924
2025-02-09 0.073873 0.099271 0.128586 0.164372 0.206335 0.253470 0.309903
2025-02-16 0.063948 0.091021 0.123358 0.163964 0.212743 0.268661 0.336803
2025-02-23 0.059901 0.089327 0.125444 0.171801 0.228519 0.294528 0.376020
2025-03-02 0.055863 0.087106 0.126455 0.177992 0.242103 0.317731 0.412169
2025-03-09 0.048581 0.079885 0.120516 0.174978 0.244002 0.326649 0.431151
2025-03-16 0.041766 0.072610 0.113907 0.170564 0.243699 0.332544 0.446232
2025-03-23 0.039377 0.071295 0.114993 0.175930 0.255593 0.353326 0.479400
2025-03-30 0.036519 0.069015 0.114549 0.179114 0.264604 0.370522 0.508246
2025-04-06 0.034559 0.067879 0.115543 0.184119 0.275924 0.390624 0.540774
2025-04-13 0.031304 0.064663 0.113668 0.185483 0.282952 0.405993 0.568397
2025-04-20 0.031317 0.066658 0.119389 0.197490 0.304321 0.439971 0.619846
2025-04-27 0.028697 0.064135 0.118349 0.200007 0.313077 0.457955 0.651442
2025-05-04 0.026652 0.062362 0.118277 0.203794 0.323513 0.478152 0.685979
2025-05-11 0.023750 0.058802 0.115250 0.203162 0.327825 0.490360 0.710386
2025-05-18 0.023284 0.059536 0.118847 0.212146 0.345383 0.519977 0.757252
2025-05-25 0.022449 0.059497 0.121172 0.219255 0.360385 0.546329 0.800083
2025-06-01 0.019562 0.055257 0.116515 0.215775 0.360446 0.552803 0.817144
2025-06-08 0.016690 0.050669 0.110974 0.210684 0.358010 0.555788 0.829561
2025-06-15 0.016047 0.050552 0.112841 0.216866 0.371600 0.580293 0.870191
2025-06-22 0.015029 0.049532 0.113100 0.220531 0.381591 0.600005 0.904648